Quantitative Analysis
The outside view
Start from what usually happens, then argue for the exception
Every company story sounds unique. The numbers usually are not. This workspace places a company's growth, margins, returns and accruals inside the distribution of thousands of stored companies, measures how fast advantages have faded, and turns those ranges into a valuation distribution instead of a single number.
Reported metrics
Ten reported ratios traced from numerator to denominator, with coverage and historical context.
Open reported metricsDriver bridges
Exact operating-profit, profit-to-cash and per-share bridges between adjacent years.
Open driver bridgesBase rates
Where this company's growth, margins and returns sit among companies of the same sector and size, how often companies sustained a growth rate for three years, and how persistent each rank has been.
Open base ratesPeer comparison
The company beside up to eight peers — suggested by Peer DNA or chosen by you — on valuation multiples and fundamentals, with ranks, peer medians and the price each peer-median multiple would imply.
Open peer comparisonPersistence outlook
Where companies ranked like this one today were one to five years later, for growth, margin, return on equity and gross profitability — so you can size how long an advantage is likely to last.
Open persistence outlookDownturn test
Operating profit under the company's own worst year, a 1-in-10 and 1-in-20 year for similar companies and a recession-sized cut, with the revenue fall that erases profit and how long cash lasts.
Open downturn testRank history
The company's percentile within its sector for every metric, year by year, the metrics whose rank improved or slipped most, and an exact split of each year's change in return on equity into margin, turnover and leverage.
Open rank historyProfitability fade
How fast above- and below-median returns have reverted in this sector, a five-year fade path from today's gap, and a quality-minus-junk profile.
Open profitability fadeCapital allocation
Return on invested capital, what the newest capital earns, the reinvestment rate, whether growth is explained by reinvestment × ROIC, and where five years of operating cash went.
Open capital allocationOperating efficiency
Days sales outstanding, days inventory, asset turnover and operating leverage against the cohort, with flags when working capital moves faster than sales.
Open efficiencyMarket expectations
Reverse the valuation: the growth and margin the current price already assumes, and how often similar companies delivered them.
Open market expectationsAccruals
Profit that has not arrived as cash, split into working-capital and long-term parts, with Beneish indices by year and a check of whether accrual signals separated returns in our data.
Open accrualsScenarios
Bear, base and bull cases seeded from the cohort's percentiles, with probabilities, an expected value, the chance of loss, upside-to-downside asymmetry and warnings when a case needs a rare outcome.
Open scenariosValuation range
Thousands of runs of the Expectations Lab cash-flow model with growth and margins drawn from the company's base rates, giving a value distribution and the share of runs above the price.
Open valuation range